“Okay, we finished the future machine. Hey future-machine, what’s gonna happen?”

“About 3 billion people will die and one continent worth of land become uninhabitable. A version of your civilization will survive, but unrecognizable to the people of today. You will lose many things you take for granted.”

“… that’s after the 0.9 degrees?”

“If you are lucky, yes.”

“… what about before?”

“Do you really want to know?”

The reality is, we just don’t know. I feel confident in saying it will get bad enough to kill food crops on a massive scale and a bunch of people will starve to death. How many is “a bunch”? I don’t know. Maybe billions. Maybe less.

But how bad it really could get, on the bad side, with as many tipping points as could exist, I think it’s impossible to say until it happens. Big changes in the earth’s climate have historically been big. The whole thing was a snowball for like 100 million years. Sometimes the ice caps melt and everything dies. Actually as I understand it, the pretty consistent answer for what happens when a big climate change happens is “almost everything dies” and then the survivors slowly adapt to the new reality. But it definitely wouldn’t be survivable for any kind of civilization (even just on pure food availability grounds) in a lot of the realistic scenarios.

I won’t say you are wrong but 0.9°C savings is pretty removedin beautiful to me

It’s bittersweet but it’s more than I thought it was

I think it is probably pretty “optimistic” and not reflective of the actual on course outcome, yes

On the other hand, I suspect that the original picture before the Paris accords was also probably pretty optimistic, so the idea that we already cut down 0.9°C is probably right around on target. That’s way more than I thought, and gives me some level of hope that what we have accomplished isn’t totally a bag of lies and garbage.

But yes, we’re on course for absolute apocalypse, with or without sudden emergency action. Very much so, and even still.

I used to do a pretty frequent task to find any image in my media directory, which has atime longer ago than a week ago, which hasn’t already been crunched in some previous round, and crunch the hell out of it with either mogrify -quality or pngquant. All of these softwares like to keep full-quality copies of a basically infinite number of images which there’s about a 99.9% chance will never be needed again, and you can crunch them down to a tiny fraction of their original size, and they still honestly look more or less fine.

Hm. So I understand the different comment IDs on different servers – the point is that searching for https://discuss.online/comment/9004867 on lemmy.world should then return a link to that same comment, with the right ID number for lemmy.world, on lemmy.world. Because through its federation backend it’s able to fetch the comment in question from discuss.online and then determine what is the local ID number on lemmy.world. Exactly the same as how it works for posts.

I just mucked around with it, and it works sometimes but not other times. I suspect that it’s because of backed up federation queues or too-short timeouts or something, but it definitely works some of the time. If it’s unreliable it may not be that good an idea to put into practice, though, of course.

Hey so check out what I just learned:

To post a link to a post, just search for the URL of the fediverse-icon version of it on your instance, then link directly to that search, chopping off the https://{your instance} from the front

And likewise for links to comments

You’re still making the user do 2 clicks instead of 1, but it’s still quite a lot more convenient than the other thing. It could be made even nicer (arguably “good enough”) if the backend could transparently redirect to the first search result along the lines of “I’m feeling lucky,” but it doesn’t look like right now it can do that.

Yeah, creating a thread for it sounds good. I’m looking at it now 👍🏻. I have matrix but pretty rarely use it

Oh no have I gotten myself involved into a community drama

My plan was the lemmy.world community but I have no real objection to doing it for both, and then it’ll get detected as a cross post, and displayed once to people who are seeing either or both communities. (This operating on the assumption that it’s wanted on the lemm.ee community also.) How’s that sound? I just don’t want anyone to yell at me

I was gonna spend time today on the movies bot, I can do a footie bot at the same time if you like?

It’s honestly most akin to an AI model over optimizing for the trained outcome even when it turns out it was misaligned from the good outcome we wanted.

They certainly don’t want their grandchildren to inhabit a barely-livable hellscape instead of the paradise world they were born into, but they’ve been optimizing for money for so long that it’s baked in now, and it’s so so easy to just say, well it’s probably not a big deal, or I don’t think the science is really all that dire in its predictions, or oh well someone else will probably figure it out. And so, every year, we keep setting records for “production”.

Greta Thunberg talks about it in her book - if the bathtub is overflowing in your house and water is spilling across the floor everywhere, step 1 for most people is to turn off the water. Yes sure it is fine to look for towels and buckets to try to contain the damage (and I don’t even disagree with you that it’ll be needed), but that also assumes that they’ll work and there will be political support to deploy them at scale, instead of mustering up the political support to turn the removeding taps down since at this point that’s clearly needed and is relatively speaking much much easier.

Watch this!

I think Jewish people are great.

The janky network penetrates the enremovedtification

That one looks right to me (or, “right” meaning consistently using period LEB) - it’s a little hard to compare because of the difference in granularity but it shows about a 20-year drop for WW2 which is what I would expect.

I edited my comment above; I think what’s happening is that the OP article is mixing different metrics for different parts of the chart. I think this one you’re sending is consistently using period LEB which is why the size of the dips is different.

I am suspicious of this

So Russia’s death rate was pretty much unchanged from 1930 to 1935 to 1945, and then things got way better in 1950?

Maybe I could see, they are counting only Russia (not the USSR), so the holomodor is largely absent from 1930, and then Russia advances in living standards meant that there was a huge underlying boost that masked the unprecedented deaths during WW2, and then after WW2 the apparent life expectancy shot up because a lot of the vulnerable or old people were already dead. But I don’t buy it. Idk what’s going on with their data, but China looks fine and Russia looks simply wrong; it is missing some big dips that it should have.

Edit: Hm, I guess there is a 6-year divot in 1932… I guess I just expected the Holomodor to show up bigger and less spread out over surrounding years. But yeah maybe it is showing up.

Edit 2: Okay, I looked more and I am confident that this isn’t exactly right. It says “the remaining average lifespan for a hypothetical group of people, if they experienced the same age-specific death rates throughout the rest of their lives as the age-specific death rates seen in that particular year.” There’s no possible way that extrapolating out the death rates people were experiencing in the middle of a famine or war would lead to these gentle dips and small divots.

I suspect that by combining data from different sources, they wound up using cohort LEB for the distant past and period LEB for the more recent past. That would explain why e.g. the dip in Russian life expectancy because of the Ukraine war shows as the same size as the dip for WW2. If they were doing the calculations the same for both, the WW2 dip would take away half the chart or more. So maybe it’s not really wrong per se but just mismatching their metrics in a way that makes it hard to draw anything of precision from the chart beyond “things getting better”.

Might be worth reaching out to the addon authors. Hard to say whether the page or the addon is at fault, but they might be interested to know it even if it’s the page’s fault.

It’s set to fade in from 0 opacity, for some sort of unnecessary “ooh look it’s fancy” effect. My guess is that if you check the console you’ll find that it hit some exception before it completed its little fade-in effect.

I think there are individual spots that are bright or dim for no reason because of random noise, up in the no-particular-pattern wilderness

I think that’s the overlap between the dense region of PINs that start with 11, 12, or 13 (similar to the dense regions that start with 21, 22, 23, 31, etc), and the dense square region of month+day dates.